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Microlesson · 5-min read

Gordon's Model

# Gordon's Model (Dividend Growth Model)

Gordon's Model is another relevance theory. It values a share as the present value of an infinite, constantly growing stream of dividends.

## A. Assumptions

  • Growth rate g (= b × r) is constant.
  • Ke remains constant.
  • Ke > g (essential — otherwise the formula breaks down).
  • Retention ratio (b) remains constant.
  • r remains constant.
  • The firm is an all-equity firm (no debt).
  • All investment proposals are financed through retained earnings only.

## B. Gordon's Formula

$$P_0 = \frac{D_1}{K_e - g} \quad=\quad \frac{D_0(1 + g)}{K_e - g} \quad=\quad \frac{E_1(1 - b)}{K_e - br}$$

Where:

  • P₀ = Price per share
  • D₀ = Current year dividend
  • D₁ = Expected dividend per share = D₀(1 + g)
  • E₁ = Earnings per share
  • b = Retention ratio; (1 − b) = Payout ratio
  • Ke = Cost of capital
  • r = IRR
  • br = g = Growth rate

## C. Optimum Dividend Payout under Gordon's Model

Type of FirmConditionOptimum Dividend Payout Ratio
Growthr > Ke0%
Constantr = KeNo optimum ratio
Decliningr < Ke100%

This is identical to Walter's conclusion.

## Doubt Busters

1. Walter's and Gordon's models prescribe the same optimum dividend payout criteria.

2. D₁ vs D₀ confusion:

  • If the question says 'Dividend Expected' → treat it as D₁.
  • If the question says 'Dividend Paid' → treat it as D₀.
  • If the question is silent, you may assume the figure is either D₁ or D₀ — just write a clear note stating your assumption.

Worked example

### Example 1

Valuing a share with Gordon's Model: E₁ = ₹10, b = 0.40, r = 18%, Ke = 12%.\n\nGrowth g = br = 0.40 × 0.18 = 0.072 (7.2%).\nPayout (1 − b) = 0.60, so D₁ = E₁(1 − b) = 10 × 0.60 = ₹6.\n\nP₀ = D₁/(Ke − g) = 6/(0.12 − 0.072) = 6/0.048 = ₹125.\n\nSince r > Ke, this is a growth firm — value is maximised at 0% payout.

### Example 2

Using D₀ vs D₁: A company 'paid a dividend' of ₹5 (so D₀ = ₹5), with g = 8% and Ke = 14%.\n\nD₁ = D₀(1 + g) = 5 × 1.08 = ₹5.40.\nP₀ = D₁/(Ke − g) = 5.40/(0.14 − 0.08) = 5.40/0.06 = ₹90.\n\nNote: because the dividend was paid (not expected), it is D₀ and must be grown by (1 + g) first.

⚠️ Common exam mistakes

  • Using D₀ directly in the numerator when D₁ is required — if a dividend is 'paid' (D₀), grow it: D₁ = D₀(1 + g).
  • Applying the formula when Ke ≤ g — the model is only valid when Ke > g; otherwise the denominator is zero or negative and the result is meaningless.
  • Forgetting that g = b × r in Gordon's model, so the growth rate is endogenous (driven by retention), unlike a simple given growth figure.
  • Misreading 'Dividend Expected' as D₀ — it is D₁.
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