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Microlesson · 5-min read

Gordon's Model (Dividend Relevance)

# Gordon's Model of Dividend Relevance

Gordon's model argues that dividend policy is relevant to share value. It values a share as the present value of an infinite stream of growing dividends.

## Core Formula

$$P_0 = \frac{D_1}{K_e - g}$$

This can be expressed in three equivalent ways:

FormFormulaWhen to use
Using expected dividend$P_0 = \dfrac{D_1}{K_e - g}$$D_1$ given directly
Using current dividend$P_0 = \dfrac{D_0(1+g)}{K_e - g}$Only $D_0$ given
Using earnings & retention$P_0 = \dfrac{E_1(1-b)}{K_e - br}$EPS and retention ratio given

## Notation

SymbolMeaning
$P_0$Price per share
$D_0$Current year dividend
$D_1$Expected dividend per share = $D_0(1+g)$
$E_1$Earnings per share
$b$Retention ratio
$(1-b)$Payout ratio
$K_e$Cost of equity capital
$r$Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
$g = br$Growth rate

Note that growth is generated internally: $g = b \times r$ (retention ratio × rate of return).

## Optimum Dividend Payout under Gordon's Model

The optimum payout depends on the relationship between the firm's return on investment ($r$) and its cost of capital ($K_e$):

Type of companyConditionOptimum dividend payout ratio
Growth firm$r > K_e$0% (retain everything)
Constant / Normal firm$r = K_e$No optimum ratio (payout is irrelevant)
Declining firm$r < K_e$100% (distribute everything)

Logic: When the firm earns more than shareholders' required return ($r > K_e$), reinvesting maximises value, so it should pay no dividend. When it earns less ($r < K_e$), shareholders are better off receiving cash to invest elsewhere, so it should pay everything out.

## Key takeaway

Gordon's model and Walter's model prescribe the same optimum dividend payout criteria — both link the decision to the comparison of $r$ vs $K_e$.

⚠️ Common exam mistakes

  • Confusing D1 with D0. Rule: if the question says 'Dividend Expected', treat it as D1; if it says 'Dividend Paid', treat it as D0; if the question is silent, you may assume either, but write a note stating your assumption.
  • Forgetting that growth must be computed as g = b × r (retention ratio × IRR) when using the earnings form of the formula.
  • Assuming Walter's and Gordon's models give different optimum payout conclusions — they give the same r vs Ke criteria.
Reference:
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